Fri, Dec 7, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 014 | 116 | 243 |
| DAL | 05 | 116 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22SJSEvander KaneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 14:05DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:38DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 6:26DALBrett RitchieGWGAssists: Devin Shore, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 6:59SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:02SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:02SJSMarcus Sorensen: Delaying game2 min
- P2 9:09DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:31DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Couture – Hertl13:54
xG 1.95–0.38 (84%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc6:34
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Kane – Donskoi – Suomela8:50
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Meier9:05
xG 0.46–0.92 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon10:50
xG 1.31–0.04 (97%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Burns – Karlsson4:58
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek13:13
xG 0.86–0.68 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Dickinson2:53
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin13:47
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Janmark – Dickinson2:56
xG 0.01–0.06 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Janmark – Dickinson3:22
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Bayreuther3:23
xG 0.60–0.09 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fedun – Hanley7:00
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Polak – Bayreuther13:22
xG 0.74–1.09 (40%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).