Fri, Dec 7, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 014 | 110 | 233 |
| EDM | 313 | 09 | 410 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 7:44EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P1 8:42EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Kevin Gravel · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 10:38MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Matt Hendricks, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 1:51EDMZack KassianAssists: Milan Lucic, Matt Benning · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 7:32MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 10:34EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 13:48EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 17:09EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.17 xG2–7
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:06EDMValentin Zykov: Holding2 min
- P2 10:50EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:48MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Granlund8:35
xG 1.13–0.86 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 0–3
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter8:08
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Niederreiter4:05
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Fehr – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:50
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba12:39
xG 1.46–0.96 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Pateryn – Seeler12:34
xG 0.77–0.32 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Spurgeon – Brodin9:03
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Rattie – Zykov9:41
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi11:52
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid17:27
xG 1.13–1.32 (46%)attempts 23–24goals 3–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian9:26
xG 0.52–1.10 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom17:48
xG 1.39–1.26 (52%)attempts 21–18goals 2–0
- Gravel – Benning9:56
xG 0.50–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Russell – Nurse17:43
xG 0.54–1.32 (29%)attempts 13–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).