Fri, Dec 7, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 18 | 315 | 436 |
| ANA | 16 | 09 | 04 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:47ANAJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Jake Dotchin · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:53CARClark BishopUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 1:56CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:57CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Clark Bishop, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 18:46CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:06ANARyan Kesler: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:07CARJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:52ANAPontus Aberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:40CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 14:41CARJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:13ANARyan Kesler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:13CARPetr Mrazek: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:47ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:34ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:01CARTeuvo Teravainen: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:45CARCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:46ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:46CARJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:46ANANick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:46CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:46ANAAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Martinook – Aho10:43
xG 0.80–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Bishop7:20
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Williams – Wallmark – Svechnikov9:41
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Foegele – Bishop2:14
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:47
xG 0.94–0.17 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk8:10
xG 0.64–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- de Haan – Faulk13:35
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Kase4:03
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Rowney – Sprong – Sherwood2:23
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong2:11
xG 0.11–0.31 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Aberg – Sprong7:14
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDotchin – Mahura8:02
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura5:15
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Larsson9:55
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).