Sat, Dec 8, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 114 | 412 | 641 |
| BUF | 217 | 09 | 04 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:02BUFJack EichelAssists: Lawrence Pilut, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 12:52PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:10PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Scott Laughton, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:49PHIClaude GirouxSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 8:10PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 9:25PHIDale WeiseAssists: Michael Raffl, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.25 xG5–2
- P3 11:00PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:02BUFConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:49BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:15PHITravis Sanheim: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:21BUFNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:21PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:21BUFNathan Beaulieu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00PHINolan Patrick: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:43
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl10:36
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Lehtera – Weal – Lindblom6:12
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Voracek – Simmonds – Patrick15:28
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov11:16
xG 1.01–0.53 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Provorov7:32
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Sanheim4:11
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:27
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:30
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Rodrigues11:01
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Pilut17:16
xG 1.03–1.01 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 2–2
- Beaulieu – Tennyson10:23
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Beaulieu2:26
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).