Sat, Dec 8, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 09 | 312 | 332 |
| BOS | 18 | 215 | 39 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20BOSJakob Forsbacka KarlssonAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 8:54BOSDavid BackesPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 17:45BOSTorey KrugAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 1:47BOSDanton HeinenGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, John Moore · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 4:03TORTravis DermottAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 4:37BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 6:13BOSRyan DonatoAssists: Danton Heinen, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–6
- P3 9:30TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
- P3 12:22TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–6
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:13BOSCharlie McAvoy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:07BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:07TORJake Gardiner: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:14TORTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:34TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:06TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:02BOSDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33TORJake Gardiner: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:32TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:32BOSBrandon Carlo: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:53BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P3 9:53TORZach Hyman: Interference5 min
- P3 9:53TORZach Hyman: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:53BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:53BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:53TORZach Hyman: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:53BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:55BOSChris Wagner: Charging2 min
- P3 10:55BOSChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:55BOSChris Wagner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:55TORRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Nylander10:54
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews9:53
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner10:17
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ennis – Brown – Lindholm6:08
xG 0.01–0.35 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov11:39
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly10:54
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Dermott2:40
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Marchand – Pastrnak12:58
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson6:30
xG 0.59–0.44 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Backes – Nordstrom – Cave10:25
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Smith7:48
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy14:00
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Kampfer – Moore14:07
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo13:22
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).