Sat, Dec 8, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 016 | 110 | 010 | 00 | 136 |
| OTT | 17 | 010 | 010 | 12 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Mark Stone · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:27PITJean-Sebastien DeaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:20OTTRyan DzingelPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:53OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41PITDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:27PITRiley Sheahan: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:45PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:06OTTZack Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:57PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:30OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:30PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:58PITDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Sheahan – Pearson11:09
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Grant – Wilson – Dea3:51
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Crosby – Kessel – Guentzel13:13
xG 0.68–0.50 (57%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Brassard – Rust – Aston-Reese10:18
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:12
xG 1.13–0.48 (70%)attempts 34–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Pettersson8:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dumoulin2:12
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Boedker – Tierney – Batherson8:15
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk10:24
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Dzingel11:42
xG 0.30–0.89 (25%)attempts 5–25goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Chabot3:36
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Harpur3:11
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot12:19
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).