Sun, Dec 9, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 6, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 38 | 28 | 15 | 621 |
| STL | 09 | 010 | 14 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:46VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 14:06VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 11:23VANBo HorvatAssists: Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–0
- P2 13:18VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Elias Pettersson, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
- P3 8:05STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 8:45VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:15VANErik Gudbranson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:25STLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:16STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Schaller – Motte9:46
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson10:07
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 4–0
- Horvat – Virtanen – Goldobin13:16
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Granlund9:54
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton16:26
xG 0.95–0.64 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
- Pouliot – Stecher16:35
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- Edler – Tanev15:23
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Sanford – Kyrou7:55
xG 0.30–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Sanford2:53
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Tarasenko6:26
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Thomas5:08
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko16:06
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–3
- Bouwmeester – Butler6:15
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Dunn10:11
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).