Sun, Dec 9, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Winnipeg Jets 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 117 | 010 | 010 | 137 |
| WPG | 26 | 319 | 210 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:38WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Deflected, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:36WPGJosh MorrisseyPPGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 17:34PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Travis Sanheim, Nolan Patrick · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 7:31WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 14:31WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 15:59WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 1:41WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Tyler Myers, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–6
- P3 8:03WPGTyler MyersAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:01WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:12PHIRobert Hagg: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P2 19:12PHIRobert Hagg: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:12WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:49PHIPhil Varone: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Varone – Lindblom6:42
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Patrick11:09
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl11:09
xG 0.91–0.97 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:38
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg7:40
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov2:28
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim14:12
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev8:19
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:10
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Ehlers – Tanev2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Little – Connor – Laine11:46
xG 0.63–0.89 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey12:52
xG 0.77–0.13 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov11:32
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:46
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).