Sun, Dec 9, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 08 | 113 | 328 |
| CHI | 110 | 112 | 017 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05MTLMax DomiAssists: Andrew Shaw, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:36MTLShea WeberAssists: Kenny Agostino, Michael Chaput · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 19:01CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:55CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dominik Kahun, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 18:43MTLTomas TatarGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:37MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:41MTLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:03MTLShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P2 18:32CHIJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58MTLTomas Tatar: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:58MTLJordie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:31CHIBrandon Saad: Interference2 min
- P3 10:36CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:45MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:12MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi5:09
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino5:30
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi7:12
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:37
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Reilly8:47
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Petry – Schlemko9:46
xG 0.38–0.48 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Kulak12:34
xG 0.47–0.86 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Kahun6:49
xG 0.54–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat2:06
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Fortin5:22
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kampf8:46
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson10:28
xG 0.95–0.20 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Jokiharju2:08
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy3:31
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).