Mon, Dec 10, 2018·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 011 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 224 |
| NYI | 09 | 17 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:32NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 2:13PITDerick BrassardAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 2. PIT Phil Kessel scored
- 3. NYI Leo Komarov stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey scored
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 7. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 8. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 9. NYI Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 10. PIT Jake Guentzel scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:14PITJamie Oleksiak: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P1 13:00PITJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:00NYIAnders Lee: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:31NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P3 11:02NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:12PITDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Kessel – Guentzel8:57
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Pearson5:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Sheahan – Pearson7:02
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grant – Wilson – Dea2:50
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:48
xG 0.85–0.44 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Maatta10:53
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Pettersson11:17
xG 1.05–0.92 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson9:19
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:32
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Johnston5:54
xG 0.26–0.57 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier9:58
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Pelech9:21
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Hickey – Pulock14:49
xG 0.44–0.90 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:31
xG 0.40–1.00 (29%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).