Tue, Dec 11, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 215 | 04 | 00 | 329 |
| BUF | 116 | 011 | 216 | 14 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:26BUFZemgus GirgensonsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:52LAKMatt LuffAssists: Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:55LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 3:47BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 7:23BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Lawrence Pilut, Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:49BUFJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.61 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:36LAKOscar Fantenberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:04BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:19LAKBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:03BUFVladimir Sobotka: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:08LAKBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:42BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P2 4:41BUFNathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:37LAKDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:40LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:44LAKNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:33LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56LAKOscar Fantenberg: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Scherbak – Kempe7:49
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Amadio – Wagner4:09
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Leipsic – Luff6:13
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:31
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Fantenberg11:01
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Muzzin5:24
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Forbort – Fantenberg4:15
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:58
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues8:40
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt8:16
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson6:24
xG 0.07–0.34 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin4:29
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen2:42
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut8:56
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).