Tue, Dec 11, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 2, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 010 | 216 | 237 |
| WSH | 310 | 27 | 18 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39WSHBrett ConnollyPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:50WSHTravis BoydAssists: Nic Dowd, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 12:59WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Michal Kempny · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 9:05WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 10:06WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 1:03DETDylan LarkinAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–5
- P3 9:33WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Christian Djoos, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 16:42DETGustav NyquistAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:10DETFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30DETFrans Nielsen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:18WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin13:51
xG 1.19–0.41 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen10:06
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Frk – de la Rose – Bertuzzi3:20
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Frk – Athanasiou – de la Rose2:45
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen11:45
xG 1.43–0.31 (82%)attempts 19–9goals 1–2
- Witkowski – Cholowski2:39
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Witkowski3:44
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Boyd – Jaskin9:43
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson12:18
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:49
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Kuznetsov – Connolly – Vrana11:39
xG 0.20–0.94 (18%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDjoos – Bowey14:54
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny17:35
xG 0.54–1.00 (35%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Orlov19:02
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).