Tue, Dec 11, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 07 | 311 | 325 |
| CBJ | 19 | 017 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47CBJSeth JonesAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 8:11VANJosh LeivoAssists: Chris Tanev, Elias Pettersson · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 9:56CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Scott Harrington, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 16:56VANElias PetterssonAssists: Josh Leivo, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 18:14VANJake VirtanenGWGAssists: Tyler Motte, Ben Hutton · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:09CBJZach Werenski: Holding2 min
- P2 11:17VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50VANJosh Leivo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Schaller – Motte6:07
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Granlund10:13
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Horvat – Goldobin – Boeser2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson10:53
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:09
xG 0.89–0.71 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Stecher15:08
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:21
xG 0.18–1.06 (14%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois15:16
xG 1.28–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–13goals 1–2
- Dubinsky – Nash – Hannikainen8:26
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand4:07
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson6:48
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara15:49
xG 1.23–0.19 (87%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Harrington – Werenski10:54
xG 0.79–0.85 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones20:20
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).