Tue, Dec 11, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 013 | 27 | 325 |
| STL | 010 | 09 | 414 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 1:28STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 1:39STLDavid PerronAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 11:12STLDavid PerronAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:46FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Jared McCann, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:14FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 16:05STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:39FLAMike Matheson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:29FLADryden Hunt: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:23STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:15STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov2:21
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Hunt5:15
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin7:08
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Haley – Lammikko3:02
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad15:44
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Weegar12:40
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson17:17
xG 0.54–1.14 (32%)attempts 12–26goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas8:50
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev4:22
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz13:11
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Steen – O'Reilly – Tarasenko12:20
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn15:54
xG 0.72–0.53 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Butler – Schmaltz7:35
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko17:06
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).