Tue, Dec 11, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 1, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 014 | 110 | 130 |
| MIN | 19 | 48 | 215 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 11:11MINMathew DumbaPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:33MINCharlie CoyleSHAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 14:58MINEric StaalAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–4
- P2 19:57MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–5
- P3 0:44MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–6
- P3 2:41MTLJeff PetryAssists: Michael Chaput, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 6:10MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–7
Penalties (10)
- P2 10:00MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20MINEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 15:12MINNick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:22MTLAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:22MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44MTLMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:38MTLMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:38MINJT Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:38MTLAndrew Shaw: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:12
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Domi3:21
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino9:36
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi5:17
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Juulsen13:10
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Kulak18:53
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Petry – Schlemko14:30
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund11:49
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown9:01
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:01
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Niederreiter14:01
xG 0.76–0.79 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba15:28
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Seeler15:02
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:25
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).