Wed, Dec 12, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 217 | 013 | 343 |
| CHI | 213 | 18 | 38 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14CHIAndreas MartinsenAssists: Carl Dahlstrom, Marcus Kruger · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:51CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:40PITBryan RustUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 5:46PITBryan RustAssists: Derek Grant · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 15:28CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 19:03PITBryan RustAssists: Olli Maatta, Zachary Aston-Reese · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:49CHIMarcus KrugerGWGAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 18:58CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
- P3 19:39CHIBrandon SaadENAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:35CHIBrendan Perlini: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06PITJean-Sebastien Dea: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:04CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Pearson11:38
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Cullen – Grant – Rust2:31
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Crosby – Brassard – Guentzel16:24
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Rust – Aston-Reese8:38
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin20:15
xG 1.13–0.40 (74%)attempts 23–17goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Maatta12:16
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Letang2:17
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Perlini – Sikura – Kampf9:03
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Kruger – Hayden – Martinsen5:11
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Saad – Kahun13:36
xG 0.31–0.79 (28%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat16:47
xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Dahlstrom2:23
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom16:10
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju17:03
xG 0.23–0.73 (24%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).