Wed, Dec 12, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 313 | 011 | 329 |
| ANA | 115 | 17 | 414 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:01DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Esa Lindell · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:07DALBlake ComeauAssists: Devin Shore, Jason Dickinson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:20DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Taylor Fedun, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 16:30ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 10:45ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Nick Ritchie, Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 12:06ANABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 13:44ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 19:29ANAHampus LindholmENAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:42ANAJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:13ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16ANANick Ritchie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:17DALJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin6:09
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Comeau – Janmark – Dickinson5:57
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Janmark3:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Nichushkin4:42
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen14:42
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Fedun – Hanley13:22
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Polak – Bayreuther12:29
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Kase5:13
xG 0.96–0.07 (93%)attempts 12–1goals 3–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:51
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Aberg – Kase8:11
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Street – Rowney – Sherwood10:06
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour18:00
xG 1.35–0.46 (75%)attempts 28–12goals 3–0
- Manson – Larsson14:51
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Dotchin – Mahura11:29
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).