Thu, Dec 13, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 111 | 316 | 431 |
| MTL | 012 | 217 | 411 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:53CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 13:51MTLMatthew PecaAssists: Michael Chaput, Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:59MTLJeff PetryAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 0:23CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Justin Williams, Lucas Wallmark · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:45MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 4:22MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Phillip Danault, Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 10:51CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:24MTLAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 15:38CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 18:01MTLJeff PetryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:55MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:17CARDougie Hamilton: Delaying game2 min
- P2 2:01CARJanne Kuokkanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:01MTLJordie Benn: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:49CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 6:12MTLPaul Byron: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:30CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:56CARLucas Wallmark: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:19CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Wallmark – Svechnikov11:07
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Rask – McGinn – Kuokkanen7:25
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop7:03
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho10:34
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Hamilton3:58
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Fleury5:08
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce8:31
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:07
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Chaput – Agostino – Peca5:36
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi6:29
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:43
xG 0.66–0.96 (41%)attempts 17–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Kulak14:37
xG 1.05–0.86 (55%)attempts 19–9goals 3–1
- Benn – Juulsen11:08
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Petry – Reilly13:50
xG 0.45–0.96 (32%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).