Thu, Dec 13, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 05 | 29 | 01 | 322 |
| NSH | 28 | 19 | 015 | 12 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52NSHRyan HartmanAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:40NSHNick BoninoAssists: Colton Sissons, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 15:15VANJay BeagleSHAssists: Markus Granlund · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 11:05NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kyle Turris, Yannick Weber · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:55VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:16VANBo HorvatSHAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 3:05NSHColton SissonsGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:07NSHRocco Grimaldi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:30NSHPekka Rinne: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:31VANAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:23NSHKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 2:45VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P3 15:11NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50NSHDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:01VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Boeser – Pettersson5:07
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Leivo – Virtanen – Pettersson2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Horvat – Virtanen – Goldobin3:33
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Horvat – Goldobin – Boeser6:36
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev14:06
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Biega – Pouliot17:00
xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Hutton – Stecher14:26
xG 0.14–0.91 (13%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Jarnkrok11:31
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Johansen – Hartman – Fiala10:07
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Grimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau7:07
xG 0.36–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons10:54
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin11:53
xG 0.85–0.02 (98%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm15:11
xG 0.65–0.21 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis17:37
xG 0.62–0.71 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).