Thu, Dec 13, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 011 | 07 | 131 |
| MIN | 18 | 29 | 29 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20FLADenis MalginAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 15:22MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Ryan Suter, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:54MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:29MINEric StaalAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:02MINZach PariseAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 3:51MINJonas BrodinAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:47MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:55FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:55MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:20MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Vatrano – Malgin8:25
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Hunt7:41
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – McCann3:18
xG 0.01–0.01 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano2:51
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar14:46
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:05
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 0–3
- Yandle – Ekblad21:22
xG 0.20–1.05 (16%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund14:13
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Coyle – Niederreiter13:54
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin8:26
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Fehr – Foligno9:36
xG 0.07–0.39 (16%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin18:21
xG 0.99–0.43 (70%)attempts 15–20goals 3–0
- Suter – Dumba20:25
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 20–17goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Seeler13:17
xG 0.20–0.30 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).