Thu, Dec 13, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 313 | 02 | 00 | 426 |
| WPG | 216 | 16 | 117 | 11 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12EDMRyan SpoonerAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 15:43WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Bryan Little, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:51WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:42WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 6:04EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P2 17:18EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 18:55EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 9:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 0:41WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:12EDMJason Garrison: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:54EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:17WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:48WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:19EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi7:12
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid14:46
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Spooner – Rieder – Caggiula3:38
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian11:27
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Benning3:33
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Garrison – Wideman3:54
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Wideman – Gravel5:50
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor4:15
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev9:55
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:37
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Little – Connor – Laine10:45
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov12:50
xG 1.32–0.18 (88%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot19:19
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Trouba – Morrissey16:21
xG 0.66–1.03 (39%)attempts 17–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).