Fri, Dec 14, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New Jersey Devils 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 310 | 16 | 05 | 01 | 422 |
| NJD | 012 | 216 | 213 | 11 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19VGKAlex TuchAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:45VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 9:23VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 2:59NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 3:57VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 10:21NJDMiles WoodAssists: Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 6:24NJDKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 14:55NJDBrett SeneyAssists: Drew Stafford · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 0:41NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:37VGKCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:57NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:28VGKColin Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:24NJDKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:04VGKWilliam Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 0:46NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:24VGKDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stastny – Lindberg – Tuch11:02
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:31
xG 0.14–0.25 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek9:32
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:20
xG 0.39–0.91 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore13:56
xG 0.76–0.70 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:18
xG 0.65–0.92 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
- Holden – Miller12:28
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestQuenneville – Zacha – Bratt7:39
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney6:54
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier9:20
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood10:28
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher13:07
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Greene – Severson15:45
xG 0.95–0.56 (63%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Vatanen – Mueller2:01
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).