Fri, Dec 14, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 118 | 222 | 351 |
| PIT | 19 | 29 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:48PITDerek GrantAssists: Matt Cullen, Garrett Wilson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:56PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 11:53BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Chris Wagner, Sean Kuraly · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:01PITZachary Aston-ReeseSHAssists: Riley Sheahan, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 7:08BOSChris WagnerAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Sean Kuraly · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:02BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 10:47PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:54PITZachary Aston-ReeseENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:24BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P2 9:00PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:22PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari11:17
xG 1.03–0.13 (89%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak14:51
xG 1.27–0.46 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson8:12
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Cave10:29
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo14:49
xG 1.20–0.33 (79%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Moore9:03
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Moore – Carlo2:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Cullen – Grant – Wilson7:05
xG 0.22–0.22 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:36
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese11:38
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Crosby – Pearson – Guentzel4:07
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Pettersson14:10
xG 0.62–0.81 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:52
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Maatta15:03
xG 0.43–1.24 (26%)attempts 6–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).