Fri, Dec 14, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 6, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 311 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 629 |
| CAR | 210 | 26 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47CARJordan MartinookAssists: Sebastian Aho, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:56WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Nic Dowd · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:18CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 4:39CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 6:41CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 12:37WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P2 17:25WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nic Dowd, John Carlson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 18:19WSHTravis BoydAssists: John Carlson, Nic Dowd · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 9:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 13:48CARJustin WilliamsPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. CAR Janne Kuokkanen stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. CAR Phillip Di Giuseppe stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 7. CAR Dougie Hamilton scored
- 8. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 9. CAR Justin Williams stopped
- 10. WSH Lars Eller stopped
- 11. CAR Brock McGinn stopped
- 12. WSH Jakub Vrana scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:59WSHMadison Bowey: Interference2 min
- P1 7:59CARWarren Foegele: Embellishment2 min
- P1 10:08WSHMadison Bowey: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:54CARDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:03WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:19WSHMichal Kempny: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:20CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:49WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:25WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana8:43
xG 1.05–0.63 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly8:34
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:43
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Jaskin7:02
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov15:14
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Kempny13:37
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Bowey – Siegenthaler8:21
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Martinook – Aho12:23
xG 1.13–0.97 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- McGinn – Bishop – Kuokkanen6:08
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Williams – Wallmark – Svechnikov11:59
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Rask – Di Giuseppe – Foegele7:21
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce15:47
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk13:18
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk13:12
xG 0.41–1.36 (23%)attempts 10–18goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).