Fri, Dec 14, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 016 | 112 | 01 | 342 |
| STL | 213 | 06 | 18 | 11 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24STLColton ParaykoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 5:42COLSven AndrighettoAssists: J.T. Compher, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 9:48COLMatt CalvertAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Nieto · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 19:19STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 11:00STLColton ParaykoAssists: Vince Dunn, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 13:10COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–3
- OT 2:05STLRyan O'ReillySHGWGAssists: Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:00STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:00COLJ.T. Compher: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:10STLDavid Perron: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 0:35COLNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:27COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:21STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:45STLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56COLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:41STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:31STLVladimir Tarasenko: Illegal stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto7:47
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost6:26
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:12
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Wilson – Bourque – Greer4:39
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard4:45
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Cole – Barrie10:49
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov6:43
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas9:58
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev4:53
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Steen – O'Reilly – Tarasenko13:05
xG 0.21–0.39 (36%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz8:18
xG 0.31–1.10 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko16:15
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Butler – Schmaltz8:23
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn13:02
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).