Fri, Dec 14, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 010 | 113 | 132 |
| EDM | 17 | 28 | 17 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:37EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 12:37EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 14:08EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Ryan Spooner, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 10:03PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:24EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:49EDMJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:25EDMDrake Caggiula: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:42PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:05EDMMatt Benning: Interference2 min
- P3 16:28EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier7:25
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl5:40
xG 0.25–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl3:50
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Laughton2:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas3:37
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg6:50
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov5:49
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi9:33
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Rieder5:12
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian4:05
xG 0.03–0.33 (7%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Caggiula5:26
xG 0.11–0.50 (19%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Garrison – Benning11:20
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse17:01
xG 0.61–1.07 (36%)attempts 12–22goals 2–1
- Gravel – Jones10:57
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).