Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 014 | 16 | 226 |
| MIN | 012 | 19 | 014 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:30MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 8:45CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: James Neal, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:40CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:40MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:04CGYTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:07CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:03MINMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:03CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27MINRyan Suter: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:39MINLuke Kunin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:13MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:33MINGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding2 min
- P3 17:23CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Lindholm – Tkachuk3:48
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett6:17
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Quine – Bennett – Tkachuk3:35
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Quine – Jankowski – Hathaway4:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Kylington2:03
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:59
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington7:11
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Niederreiter14:56
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Granlund – Greenway11:14
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Brown6:25
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin9:17
xG 0.28–0.40 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:01
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin7:35
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin5:58
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).