Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 13 | 07 | 218 |
| MTL | 112 | 016 | 419 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39MTLMatthew PecaAssists: Kenny Agostino, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 3:59OTTColin WhiteAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 9:11OTTMikkel BoedkerAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:06MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 10:06MTLShea WeberGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:37MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 17:31MTLJonathan DrouinENAssists: Max Domi, Matthew Peca · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:34OTTColin White: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 13:14OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:26MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 16:35OTTNick Paul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:43MTLAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:43OTTJustin Falk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:08MTLJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:25MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:25OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:57OTTDrake Batherson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chaput won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk10:00
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Dzingel5:01
xG 0.13–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney4:05
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Harpur – Lajoie2:43
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot5:57
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Falk – Harpur4:51
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:10
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:15
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:19
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Chaput – Agostino – Peca8:32
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly15:03
xG 0.67–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Weber – Kulak12:34
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Juulsen10:59
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).