Sat, Dec 15, 2018·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 25 | 06 | 14 | 06 | 0 | 321 |
| NYI | 110 | 015 | 221 | 02 | 1 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:05NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:46DETTrevor DaleyAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 11:03NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 13:56NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 18:57DETThomas VanekAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 4. DET Thomas Vanek stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 6. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:55NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:48DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:33DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:56DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:00DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:36DETThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:39DETAndreas Athanasiou: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou2:20
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Ehn5:50
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen7:28
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Athanasiou – Larkin2:28
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Daley – Ericsson2:36
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen12:24
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Witkowski3:27
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson10:42
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:59
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas2:42
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier12:53
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock13:13
xG 1.60–0.29 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Hickey – Mayfield2:42
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech13:10
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).