Sat, Dec 15, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 015 | 29 | 113 | 04 | 341 |
| PIT | 212 | 113 | 08 | 13 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58PITMatt CullenSHAssists: Bryan Rust, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 13:04PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:22LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:29PITTanner PearsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 10:06LAKMatt LuffAssists: Austin Wagner, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:30LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 3:59PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:19PITDerek Grant: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:22PITOlli Maatta: Interference2 min
- P1 10:02LAKBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:40LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:39PITGarrett Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:25LAKBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Thompson – Leipsic7:16
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Scherbak – Kempe5:06
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Amadio – Wagner – Luff8:31
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Kempe3:45
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Fantenberg7:14
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Forbort – Walker6:03
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Fantenberg – Brickley5:09
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Sheahan – Pearson8:40
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:53
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Cullen – Grant – Wilson10:11
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese9:56
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pettersson14:10
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Dumoulin – Oleksiak19:35
xG 0.70–0.56 (55%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Maatta – Riikola13:09
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).