Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 012 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 134 |
| NSH | 18 | 06 | 012 | 02 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:43NSHFrederick GaudreauAssists: Miikka Salomaki, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 18:29NJDBrian BoyleAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. NJD Kyle Palmieri scored
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 4. NJD Drew Stafford stopped
- 5. NSH Calle Jarnkrok stopped
- 6. NJD Brian Boyle stopped
- 7. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 8. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 9. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 10. NJD Nico Hischier stopped
- 11. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
- 12. NJD John Quenneville stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:19NJDBrett Seney: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:26NSHKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:06NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12NSHKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 10:37NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:00NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood9:43
xG 0.55–0.30 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier10:01
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney5:37
xG 0.03–0.43 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Quenneville – Zacha – Bratt6:43
xG 0.11–0.72 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Greene – Severson13:27
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen3:14
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Mueller11:57
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGrimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau6:24
xG 0.82–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons10:19
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok7:42
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Hartman – Fiala2:02
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin11:06
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:52
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm18:09
xG 0.74–0.85 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).