Sat, Dec 15, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 09 | 013 | 132 |
| VAN | 38 | 18 | 18 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13VANChris TanevAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:09VANLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 11:12VANJosh LeivoAssists: Brock Boeser, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P1 16:29PHIScott LaughtonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 12:07VANBrock BoeserAssists: Troy Stecher, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 15:29VANMarkus GranlundENAssists: Tyler Motte, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:04VANTroy Stecher: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:29VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:03PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:23VANTyler Motte: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:58PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:15VANJay Beagle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier12:30
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Raffl – Patrick10:32
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny5:28
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Laughton3:27
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov12:15
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gudas15:32
xG 0.59–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Hagg – Sanheim4:49
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Gaudette9:35
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson8:11
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Beagle – Granlund – Motte9:50
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Horvat – Virtanen – Goldobin10:48
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Pouliot13:16
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev13:31
xG 0.43–0.72 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Hutton – Stecher17:43
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).