Sun, Dec 16, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 213 | 012 | 11 | 441 |
| NYR | 17 | 110 | 113 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:40VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Colin Miller, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 6:09VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 12:10NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 13:12VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 3:29NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:11VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:26VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:35NYRKevin Hayes: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:38VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:37VGKReilly Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27NYRTony DeAngelo: Holding2 min
- P3 5:46VGKOscar Lindberg: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Bellemare – Nosek8:57
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter11:10
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch12:37
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:41
xG 0.65–0.71 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller12:17
xG 1.31–0.04 (97%)attempts 18–3goals 2–0
- Holden – Theodore15:44
xG 1.30–0.89 (59%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt17:53
xG 0.70–1.04 (40%)attempts 21–19goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Buchnevich10:41
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Chytil11:03
xG 0.60–1.06 (36%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Strome – Nieves – Andersson8:50
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 3–18goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden9:24
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McQuaid – Claesson11:27
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo17:53
xG 0.99–1.10 (47%)attempts 17–27goals 1–1
- Staal – Pionk15:41
xG 0.70–1.46 (32%)attempts 11–29goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).