Sun, Dec 16, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 14 | 18 | 222 |
| VAN | 07 | 215 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:40EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:49VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:46VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:04VANElias PetterssonPPGWGAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 15:50EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 18:18VANBo HorvatENAssists: Antoine Roussel, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:53EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:47VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:40EDMCaleb Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:22EDMKevin Gravel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47EDMMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:48EDMAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Rieder – Caggiula4:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi8:20
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian8:35
xG 0.25–0.09 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi3:30
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Jones12:54
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 20–1goals 0–0
- Nurse – Jones2:18
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse18:39
xG 0.53–0.66 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Horvat11:50
xG 1.01–0.08 (93%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson12:11
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Beagle – Motte – Virtanen4:18
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Granlund – Motte5:43
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:37
xG 1.10–0.24 (82%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton15:21
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Stecher12:07
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).