Mon, Dec 17, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Anaheim Ducks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 318 | 17 | 436 |
| PIT | 28 | 09 | 013 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:32PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:07ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 5:33ANAKiefer SherwoodAssists: Carter Rowney, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 18:47ANAOndrej KaseGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 19:11ANARyan GetzlafENAssists: Adam Henrique, Pontus Aberg · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:47ANAJosh Mahura: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:13PITZachary Aston-Reese: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:02PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50ANACarter Rowney: Holding2 min
- P3 4:11ANAOndrej Kase: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:54ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Aberg – Kase11:30
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:32
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Rowney – Sherwood8:45
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong10:25
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour14:02
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Manson – Montour2:25
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Larsson15:16
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese13:39
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Grant – Wilson7:45
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:11
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Brassard – Sheahan – Pearson9:17
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pettersson13:59
xG 1.02–0.33 (75%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:51
xG 0.66–0.70 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Maatta13:17
xG 0.17–0.44 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).