Tue, Dec 18, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 111 | 416 | 536 |
| BUF | 16 | 117 | 09 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 9:17FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Jared McCann, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 11:08BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 0:58FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:30FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 4:42FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Henrik Borgstrom · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:30FLAEvgenii DadonovENAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:59FLAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:38FLAJared McCann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:09BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:35FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12BUFZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:12FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Vatrano – Borgstrom10:49
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Huberdeau – Barkov2:40
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – McCann – Malgin5:34
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Hoffman – McCann – Lammikko2:55
xG 0.00–0.03 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Pysyk11:05
xG 0.78–0.20 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Matheson2:22
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad12:16
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Girgensons – Thompson8:02
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt6:58
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Larsson2:04
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt2:55
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Dahlin3:32
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin12:47
xG 0.85–0.88 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen11:11
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).