Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 210 | 210 | 731 |
| NJD | 18 | 09 | 112 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01TORJohn TavaresAssists: Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:58TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Snap, 0.41 xG2–0
- P1 13:38TORPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Travis Dermott · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P1 18:44NJDSami VatanenAssists: Brian Boyle · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 1:45TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.44 xG4–1
- P2 19:57TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 14:47NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 16:28TORTyler EnnisAssists: Connor Brown, Par Lindholm · Snap, 0.30 xG6–2
- P3 18:30TORTyler EnnisAssists: Jake Gardiner, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.16 xG7–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:15TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P1 3:58NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:20NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P2 5:15NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:36TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00TORTravis Dermott: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner12:02
xG 1.14–0.41 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Ennis – Brown – Lindholm7:28
xG 0.83–0.12 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Nylander10:00
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews11:03
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:57
xG 1.36–0.70 (66%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Dermott – Ozhiganov14:38
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Rielly14:29
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood10:30
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt9:59
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Quenneville – Seney7:08
xG 0.51–0.88 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier11:19
xG 0.42–0.96 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Severson – Butcher2:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher16:00
xG 0.65–1.04 (38%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Mueller12:26
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).