Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 1, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 16 | 01 | 115 |
| NYR | 05 | 05 | 314 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:09ANAPontus AbergAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ondrej Kase · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 9:52NYRVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Brett Howden, Jimmy Vesey · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 19:20NYRKevin HayesSHGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:41NYRFilip ChytilENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:17NYRBoo Nieves: Holding2 min
- P1 13:04NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:15NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:15NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:11ANAJake Dotchin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:52NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:07NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:38ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P3 17:25NYRFilip Chytil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – Rowney – Sherwood5:23
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Aberg – Kase10:48
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:05
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong10:02
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Larsson11:43
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Dotchin – Mahura7:51
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura2:43
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Vesey – Howden6:08
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Chytil10:40
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kreider – Hayes – Buchnevich7:51
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Nieves – Andersson3:55
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk13:42
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Skjei11:55
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Smith – DeAngelo13:59
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).