Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 16 | 18 | 222 |
| PHI | 111 | 29 | 013 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:33PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:12DETDennis CholowskiPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:52PHIRadko GudasAssists: Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 15:17PHIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Nolan Patrick, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 2:00DETJacob de la RoseAssists: Martin Frk, Christoffer Ehn · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:09DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference2 min
- P1 2:27PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P1 4:34DETThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:52PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:08PHIOskar Lindblom: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Frk – de la Rose – Ehn5:49
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou3:01
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi7:00
xG 0.18–0.32 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen3:34
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Jensen12:32
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Hronek13:51
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Cholowski15:11
xG 0.51–1.11 (32%)attempts 13–21goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier15:01
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Patrick9:12
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Weise – Varone – Lindblom7:09
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:04
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg14:45
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Provorov17:41
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gudas14:43
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).