Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 06 | 311 | 430 |
| EDM | 08 | 19 | 06 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12STLDavid PerronAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:25EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Caleb Jones · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 2:19STLPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 11:43STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:09STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:55STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:25EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:15STLDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:25STLDavid Perron: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 14:31STLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:24STLJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:03EDMJujhar Khaira: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P3 9:03STLVince Dunn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:03EDMJujhar Khaira: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas8:03
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:36
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly8:54
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev4:14
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Bortuzzo10:44
xG 0.88–0.21 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Butler – Dunn9:35
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko16:59
xG 0.72–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian6:05
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid10:19
xG 0.35–0.59 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Khaira – Puljujarvi – Caggiula4:41
xG 0.23–0.47 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Rieder – Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins8:20
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Larsson2:29
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nurse – Jones2:50
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Garrison – Benning6:46
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).