Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 212 | 110 | 215 | 537 |
| VAN | 116 | 014 | 18 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:17VANTyler MotteAssists: Troy Stecher, Jake Virtanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 11:07TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Danick Martel, Adam Erne · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:37TBLAdam ErneGWGAssists: Cedric Paquette, Dan Girardi · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 5:46VANChris TanevAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 17:22TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 18:17TBLOndrej PalatENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 4:03VANBrock Boeser: Holding2 min
- P1 4:58TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:06TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:22TBLErik Cernak: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:59TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:41VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:49TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:49TBLYanni Gourde: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:49VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:49VANAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:26TBLDanick Martel: Interference2 min
- P2 16:31VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:31VANJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:31TBLDanick Martel: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:11TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:11VANErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:11TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:11VANBen Hutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:11TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli7:05
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point5:44
xG 0.57–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Paquette – Erne – Martel4:32
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Gourde2:14
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:48
xG 1.05–0.32 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Girardi – Sergachev10:57
xG 1.03–0.66 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 2–1
- Stralman – Hedman9:48
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Horvat – Virtanen2:43
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Motte – Virtanen4:42
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Granlund2:25
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson7:20
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:41
xG 0.79–0.30 (73%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Stecher5:41
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Pouliot3:18
xG 0.11–0.37 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).