Wed, Dec 19, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 213 | 08 | 230 |
| WSH | 08 | 110 | 014 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:38WSHLars EllerAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 9:15PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:58PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:55WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:55PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:05PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:54WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Holding2 min
- P1 14:10WSHMichal Kempny: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:48PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P2 2:58PITMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:06WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:12PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:13WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:16PITPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Brassard – Pearson7:44
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Sheahan5:22
xG 0.33–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:28
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese6:32
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta6:04
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Maatta4:46
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Pettersson2:16
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:50
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly5:54
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Dowd – Boyd – Jaskin4:33
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana6:58
xG 0.33–0.72 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Kempny2:24
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov11:02
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Bowey – Siegenthaler5:56
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).