Wed, Dec 19, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 014 | 09 | 136 |
| COL | 012 | 14 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 4:21COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 0:35COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:47COLNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:37MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:43COLGabriel Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:51MTLMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:01COLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:55MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:35MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:14
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:15
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Chaput – Agostino – Hudon4:58
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi8:59
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Mete10:58
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn16:20
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 23–12goals 0–2
- Petry – Reilly14:59
xG 0.36–0.91 (28%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Kerfoot4:06
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:43
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:01
xG 0.91–0.50 (65%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost4:36
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov2:48
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth6:06
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard12:21
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).