Thu, Dec 20, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Anaheim Ducks 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 08 | 110 | 125 |
| BOS | 08 | 210 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:19BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Backes · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 18:05BOSTorey KrugPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 5:21BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 15:44ANAJosh MahuraAssists: Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:00BOSJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:44ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:41BOSDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
- P2 7:44ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:58ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:03BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:38
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Silfverberg – Gibbons3:16
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Rowney – Sherwood3:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase2:26
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mahura5:20
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura2:28
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Montour – Larsson8:30
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari10:02
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak11:47
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson8:07
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Cave9:46
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy14:46
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Moore9:46
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Carlo2:30
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).