Thu, Dec 20, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 08 | 19 | 126 |
| TOR | 110 | 28 | 38 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:17TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:50TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:14TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 2:38TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–4
- P3 5:41TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Martin Marincin · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 10:28FLAHenrik BorgstromPPAssists: Jared McCann, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 15:14TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:20FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:33TORNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
- P2 17:19TORMartin Marincin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:24FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:56TORAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:44FLATroy Brouwer: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Barkov – Vatrano4:47
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov8:47
xG 0.28–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Haley – Hawryluk – Lammikko4:23
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Haley – Lammikko2:55
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad17:37
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Weegar10:22
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson17:45
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Johnsson – Marner12:02
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews14:17
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Lindholm8:53
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander8:58
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:34
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:02
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Marincin – Dermott13:13
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).