Thu, Dec 20, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 117 | 010 | 014 | 141 |
| PIT | 114 | 011 | 112 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:30PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 8:12PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:09MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:20PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:20MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:23PITJuuso Riikola: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:00MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund13:13
xG 1.26–0.58 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter11:30
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Coyle – Greenway – Kunin11:12
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:42
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:35
xG 1.50–0.89 (63%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Brodin17:55
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Prosser – Seeler7:39
xG 0.08–0.44 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Sheahan – Aston-Reese8:21
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Pearson4:38
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Brassard – Pearson4:57
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Simon4:49
xG 0.03–0.04 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Maatta2:04
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Riikola2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:51
xG 1.12–1.14 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).