Thu, Dec 20, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 16 | 211 | 529 |
| DAL | 014 | 110 | 14 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Sikura, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:23CHIErik GustafssonPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:56CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 8:15DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 6:16DALTaylor FedunAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:10CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–2
- P3 18:50CHIBrendan PerliniENAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 2:29CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:17DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Kahun13:11
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome14:04
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Hayden – Perlini6:49
xG 0.52–0.73 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Kampf11:32
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Gustafsson20:07
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 18–23goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Forsling11:56
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin8:56
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Janmark – Dickinson8:37
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Radulov – Shore – Nichushkin2:18
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Pitlick – Faksa7:05
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell18:00
xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Bayreuther11:43
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Fedun – Heiskanen13:50
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).