Thu, Dec 20, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 03 | 112 | 130 |
| VAN | 05 | 214 | 310 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:51VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 6:19VANAdam GaudetteGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 2:08VANJosh LeivoAssists: Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 6:33STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 11:24VANJake VirtanenAssists: Alexander Edler, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 15:24VANLoui ErikssonENAssists: Jake Virtanen, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.73 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:50VANDerrick Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:43VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P2 2:02STLVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P2 5:34STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03VANChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:22
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly12:53
xG 0.48–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas10:27
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Bortuzzo14:13
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Butler – Dunn9:51
xG 0.63–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko13:23
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Granlund – Gaudette5:57
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Horvat4:13
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson4:33
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Horvat – Virtanen5:44
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev12:11
xG 0.18–0.52 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Biega – Pouliot15:56
xG 0.60–0.95 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton17:53
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).