Thu, Dec 20, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Islanders 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 05 | 08 | 221 |
| VGK | 015 | 119 | 313 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:38NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 8:48VGKBrandon PirriPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 6:22VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 7:25VGKPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:45VGKNate SchmidtENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:24NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:56NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:06VGKOscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:21NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:21VGKOscar Lindberg: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 14:26VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Ho-Sang7:24
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:46
xG 1.22–1.22 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:10
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:19
xG 0.20–0.72 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Pulock2:43
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:54
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Boychuk – Leddy12:18
xG 0.58–0.93 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Smith – Pirri3:56
xG 0.94–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch6:00
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter10:04
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault7:39
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:25
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Engelland – Theodore15:10
xG 1.58–1.23 (56%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
- Holden – Hunt13:43
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).