Thu, Dec 20, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 312 | 09 | 24 | 525 |
| SJS | 210 | 120 | 014 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 1:36SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 11:27SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 12:32WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 13:44WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nic Petan, Brendan Lemieux · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 19:54SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:53WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:00WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Other, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:19SJSJustin Braun: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:38WPGPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:22SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:22WPGBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:04SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:18WPGTyler Myers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:40SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:15WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Roslovic – Tanev11:26
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Petan – Lemieux – Appleton5:49
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:38
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Little – Connor – Laine11:50
xG 0.03–0.93 (3%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov8:41
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Myers2:54
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:34
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Donskoi11:37
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 16–4goals 1–2
- Couture – Hertl – Meier11:44
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc8:50
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil7:43
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:25
xG 1.21–0.41 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Karlsson7:50
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Simek12:34
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).